Climate Disaster and People on the Move

This morning I was doing some research on whether those affected by hurricanes in the US were leaving for other states. The International Displacement Monitoring Centre's 2025 report, which measures internal displacements across the globe, had a really interesting look at the United States and Florida in particular.

They define an internally displaced person as someone forced to flee their home due to climate disaster, war, conflict, etc but has yet to cross an internationally recognized border.

I'm particularly interested in the climate part of this, because while many conflicts resolve over the years (leading to return of displaced citizens), the forces behind climate disaster tend to be generational. Political instability, for example, can end with regime change, but warming oceans that lead to stronger hurricanes is not something that can be reversed in a couple of years.

The calculus for people displaced from climate disaster is much different from those fleeing from political instability, and that calculus seems likely to lean more and more towards permanent relocation as climate disasters increase in frequency and intensity.

And while conflict, poverty, and climate disaster reinforce each other in tremendously negative ways, this is not purely a "developing country problem."

The report notes that the United States, the wealthiest country on Earth, had the highest recorded number of IDPs of any country in 2024. Floods, droughts, wildfires, cyclones, etc. caused 45.8MM people to go on the move in 2024, with 11MM, almost 1 in 4, found in the US as a result of a destructive hurricane season. Hurricane Milton was responsible for 6MM displacements across the US, Mexico, and the Caribbeans.

It's the 9th successive hurricane season with above average activity, and Redfin published a report last week highlighting net outflows (a first since 2019) of residents living in flood-prone areas. Miami-Dade County, with almost 40% of homes facing high flood risk, saw net outflow of almost 70k.