No More TOEFL @ Oxford / Cambridge: High-Stakes January for ETS

In 2 weeks, Oxford and Cambridge will stop accepting the TOEFL from incoming students. The surface claim seems innocuous enough: there's a new format rolling out on 21 January, and they need to assess the impact. But a bigger debate is playing out behind the scenes.

All eyes are on ETS, the $1B non-profit responsible for TOEFL and TOEIC, heading into the start of this year. I've written before on how TOEFL has been losing market share to more nimble competitors, especially Duolingo, who launched their shorter, online-only, adaptive English test many years ago.

While the jury is still out on whether DET (or any English test for that matter) can accurately measure real world performance, many institutions (including the Ivy League) seem to have no issue accepting it, and students obviously prefer cheaper and shorter formats.

Last summer, ETS announced radical changes to their own flagship academic product. They'll be shortening the test, aligning more closely to CEFR levels, and in 2 weeks time they'll complete their transition by rolling out

"[...] a multistage adaptive design for the Reading and Listening sections of the TOEFL iBT. This means the test will adjust in real time based on how a student performs. Additionally, traditional content will be supplemented with modern, equitable topics. The tailored test will:

• Better reflect how students use English in real academic settings, like group discussions and project work
• Use content that is relevant, accessible and carefully reviewed to reduce cultural bias"

Sound familiar? It's a capitulation, forced by the success of Duolingo and Pearson's PET since the pandemic. However, Cambridge and Oxford, two of the world's elite English-speaking institutions, don't accept any of the shorter formats. And now they're putting TOEFL on notice.

There's a couple of takes here. One is that this is snooty behavior from two of the oldest institutions in the world. Academia generally trails behind industry in any case. Maybe this spurs TOEFL to create a separate, legacy offering, or more likely the Universities will accept reality in a few years (decades) anyways.

Another take is that ETS made a strategic mistake. They've committed to chasing a market where digital-native competitors have natural advantages.

A spicy take is that Oxford/Cambridge are right, and these shorter, adaptive tests are genuinely bad at predicting English performance IRL. I personally believe there's a limit to how short a test can be before it loses its effectiveness, but offering students a choice between a 59$ test for 60 minutes versus 250$ for 120 minutes is a no-brainer.

A space to watch! Duolingo themselves mentioned in last year's earnings reports that revenue may see adjustment if institutions no longer trust their format. I expect multiple PR waves this year on this topic. Keep y'all posted.