OECD International Migration Outlook 2025: Key Takeaways for Global Mobility
Mobility christmas has arrived! Aka the OECD's International Migration Outlook just dropped. I'm still working through it, but here are some early takeaways I found interesting:
The Pullback Begins: After years of pent up demand was released post-pandemic, (and the initial wave of Russian/Ukranian exits has receded) we're seeing the first major pullback. Permanent migration dropped 4% in 2024 but remains 15% above 2019. This suggests a new, higher baseline rather than a return to "normal." However, IMO this is just the beginning of a moderately-sized pendulum swinging the opposite way. Net zero migration policy, deportations, and general anti-immigration sentiment will accelerate all of these numbers in next year's report.
The Student Visa Cliff: A whopping 13% drop in international students was observed, with Canada down 39%. Countries that opened a "study-to-immigrate" pathway to address labor shortages during the pandemic are now tightening the rules. Similar to the above, I expect acceleration on this next year. I mentioned this last week wrt DET v IELTS, but IDP, Cambridge, Duolingo -- really any of the big language proficiency providers or international student placement companies -- are facing massive headwinds. They're now competing for a shrinking slice of a shrinking pie.
Firm Trap: Two-thirds of the immigrant earnings gap exists because immigrants get stuck in lower-paying firms, not just lower-paying jobs. You can have the right skills, be in the right sector, and live in the right city, but if you're hired into a bottom-tier employer, prospects are grim. The report accordingly focuses a lot on employer dynamics, and the necessity of holding them accountable. We've already seen this reflected in the UK's White Paper on Net Zero Migration which has an entire section dedicated just to this. The US's recent H1B price hike also targets this issue. I expect many countries to increase scrutiny on "visa factory" industries where exploitation is common.
Temporary > Permanent: 2.3MM temporary work permits were granted in 2024. Countries want flexibility and control, so they're launching revolving-door systems rather than encouraging permanent settlement pathways. I've written about this before in the context of nomads, but the days of easy naturalization are over (except for CBI). Countries will run trial programs first (1-2 year visas) and then convert the best instead of opening the floodgates.
The Healthcare Brain Drain: 89,000 doctors and 257,000 nurses in OECD countries come from WHO-listed fragile health systems. Wealthy countries are solving their shortages by systematically depleting the countries that can least afford it. Global mobility companies with niche expertise in Germany, India, and China (for doctors) and Philippines, India, and Poland (for nurses) are likely to out-perform v other markets.