Asylum Seekers of 2025: Last Cohort

Asylum numbers hit a record high in 2024, causing a slew of policies aimed at restricting them in 2025. The 2026 forecast is even more restrictive. Here's a quick sample of what some countries are doing to stem the tide:

• United States: Stated goal for 2026 is 7,500 total asylum seekers (1.7MM in 2024). Suspended refugee resettlement program. Ended special parole programs for Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for several countries, including Nicaragua and Honduras, was also ended.
• Finland: Halved their refugee resettlement quota to 500 asylum seekers and closed 18 refugee reception centers. Tightened asylum application conditions, limiting applications at certain borders.
• Germany: Plans to end voluntary admission programs as much as possible. Introduced internal Schengen border checks and stricter requirements for family re-unification for those who hold subsidiary protection status.
• Netherlands: Restricted access to shelter and financial support for asylum seekers with low chances of protection. Proposed replacing permanent residency with three-year renewable permits.
• Sweden: Closed pathways for rejected asylum seekers to transition to work permits and offered voluntary return assistance for Syrians.

Altogether I estimate these policies affect between 2-3MM asylum seekers in the coming year (1.7MM in the US alone). Next year's numbers will reflect a spigot that has been turned off in many OECD countries, effectively creating a "last cohort" of asylum seekers.