The Immigration Iceberg: Canada Edition

Last month the Canadian government announced numbers for its Immigration Levels Plan for 2026-2028 detailing exactly how many people it's targeting to let in under which pathways.

The plan is a perfect example of what I call the immigration iceberg. It's a framework to think about how governments will manage migration in the coming decade. The visible tip is what countries actively encourage -- skilled workers, digital nomads, and sometimes international students -- people who are seen as bringing economic or strategic value. Beneath the surface is a much larger group of refugees, asylum seekers, and others who may need social support before becoming fully economically productive.

Canada’s 2026–28 Immigration Levels Plan is a clear example of this iceberg policy in action, boosting economic and francophone admissions while carefully managing protected persons and temporary workers to keep the system balanced.

Under this plan, Canada is stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380K per year from 2026 through 2028 while reducing new temporary arrivals to around 385K in 2026 and 370K in 2027 and 2028. International students, unfortunately, are landing on the other side in this case with a more than 50% reduction in targeted levels. The rest of the economic category (the tip of the iceberg) is prioritized and will rise to 64% of all permanent residents by 2027-28 with provincial nominees and high-skilled federal workers driving most of this growth. Francophone admissions outside Quebec are also climbing and will reach 10.5 percent by 2028 (I expect TEF/TCF demand to rise).

Beneath the surface, refugee and protected-person admissions are being reduced from recent levels of ~75K/year to ~49K while still meeting humanitarian obligations. One-time, fast-track transitions for ~115K protected persons and up to 33K temporary workers to permanent residence aim to prevent backlogs across the system in the coming years.