ICMPD Migration Outlook 2025: Return Rate

Between self-deportation and forced deportation, the Trump campaign has sent 2 million people packing since the start of 2025. This has ears of immigration hawks perked up across Europe -- as restricted or even closed borders become a new policy standard, active deportation is next up on the docket.

This made me think of a report I read much earlier this year, ICMPD's Migration Outlook for 2025 that had a section on return rates, and the authors cautioned against the general ineffectiveness of measuring policy success against them.

Some takeaways from me:

• Overall, only 1 in 5 (20%) third-country nationals ordered to leave actually returned to their home country.
• There were almost 60 different nationalities with more than 1,000 leave orders in 2023
• Return rates varied dramatically: from 1.5% to 65.2% depending on nationality
• Afghanistan: 4.0% return rate
• Syria: 2.7% return rate

EU candidate countries had significantly higher return rates than distant countries, as did countries with close EU relationships. However, ongoing violence and poor security/economic conditions in origin countries resulted in lower return rates.